Navigating the Currents of Climate Science and Policy

Advances and Limitations of AI Weather Forecasting

Artificial intelligence is making waves in weather forecasting. New AI-powered models like the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasting's (ECMWF) Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) and the innovative Aardvark Weather are demonstrating remarkable speed and accuracy, potentially surpassing traditional physics-based systems. Aardvark, in particular, promises to democratize forecasting by enabling predictions on desktop computers, potentially benefiting developing nations.

However, even with these advancements, human expertise remains crucial. As meteorologist Cliff Mass points out, models still have limitations and experienced forecasters are essential to identify errors and refine predictions to prevent over- or under-warning the public.

AI and Climate Change Modeling: A Critical Assessment

The use of AI is expanding into climate modeling, with intriguing results. Grok 3, an AI chatbot, co-authored a paper challenging the prevailing anthropogenic CO2-driven global warming narrative. Guided by human experts, Grok 3's analysis highlighted the relatively small contribution of human CO2 emissions to the global carbon cycle compared to natural fluxes, questioning the IPCC's reliance on specific datasets and models.

Grok 3's analysis also emphasized the importance of considering natural drivers like solar variability and temperature feedbacks, urging a reevaluation of current climate paradigms.

Debunking Climate Alarmism: Big Numbers and Little Meaning

Climate alarmism often relies on large numbers that, when put into proper context, lose their impact. Edward Ring's analysis in American Greatness demonstrates this by comparing alarming figures about ice loss in Antarctica and Greenland with the total ice mass of these regions. The relative changes are miniscule, well below the accuracy of measurement.

Similarly, the predicted 250,000 additional deaths per year due to climate change, while tragic, represents a tiny fraction of total global deaths, highlighting the importance of perspective.

"We need climate resilience... That goal would be easier if once-trusted global institutions would allow for honest debate and practical infrastructure development." - Edward Ring

The Importance of Scientific Rigor: Correlation vs. Causation

Statistician William Briggs emphasizes the crucial distinction between correlation and causation in scientific studies, particularly regarding claims linking chemicals to diseases. He cautions against over-reliance on p-values, which do not establish causality, and advocates for a more comprehensive approach considering all evidence.

"...you cannot, and must not, trust all the science that is pushed that merely reports correlations. Which is most of it." - William Briggs

The Benefits of CO2: A Boost for Agriculture

Ross McKitrick's research reveals that studies on the social cost of carbon often omit the positive impact of increased CO2 on crop yields. This is further supported by research on C4 photosynthesis, which demonstrates how plants like maize benefit from higher CO2 concentrations, particularly in arid conditions.